Truckable Economic Activity Update
As had been widely anticipated, economic growth rebounded significantly in the third quarter. Indeed, the level of Total Truckable Economic Activity almost returned to the level it had attained in the first quarter of 2020. The current track of Total TEA® is consistent with that seen in other recessions with two differences. The first is that this event appears to be front-loaded. The inflection point of the line in prior recessions has been close to the end of each recession. The second, which has to do with the long-term structural changes in the U.S. economy, is that the foreign sector is going to play a much larger role in how long and how deep this recession turns out to be.
Conversely, one of the major differences between this recession and those that have preceded it is that TEA® has, at least so far, sustained less damage than the economy as a whole. This is the result of the first set of blows falling most heavily on the service-providing sectors. How much longer this will prevail is one of the most interesting questions we face. The next most interesting is what form the structural changes in aggregate supply and demand are going to take as relates to the performance of the trucking economy.
For more detail on the individual components of TEA®, please reach out to John Blodgett for details on subscribing to our quarterly TEA® Newsletter.
HDAD 2021 goes virtual!
From the comfort of your office chair, you can experience all the panel discussions. The program has been shortened and the segments are packed with industry veterans and experts.
Aftermarket Parts Branding Study
Within the past few weeks, MacKay & Company has launched our inaugural Brand Study focused on Aftermarket Brands. The reality today is that owners and maintainers of medium and heavy duty vehicles have a variety of options when replacing parts (beyond the OE replacement part) and these options continue to grow. Could this be confusing? Certainly, but this could provide fleets with options that best fit their particular vehicle needs depending on the application, age, etc. In our Brand Study, we are taking a deep dive into brands from both the fleet and the distribution channel perspective. What brands are used, known, promoted, top of mind, associated with a certain component…you name it, we are asking about it.
Are there specific brand questions that would help you with your business planning, promotions or development? Participating in our Brand Study at the ground level will provide you with an opportunity to add questions that relate directly to your business.
More details are in the prospectus and we can provide this upon request.
DataMac® Lube
MacKay & Company for many years has been sizing and detailing the Aftermarket for lubricants in four major markets – Agriculture Equipment, Construction Equipment, Medium and Heavy Trucks and Light Duty Trucks. Three of these four markets have been updated in 2020 with the fourth to be completed in the next couple of months. Each provides a comprehensive examination of engine oil, transmission fluid, coolant, hydraulic fluid and DEF in these four markets. We profile the market by point of service, distribution channel, vocation, fleet size and brand share. All of this data is available through our online application – easy to use and always accessible.
DataMac® Tire
Our fall release of DataMac® Tire Operator Report highlights all things tire as it relates to fleets. This report completes our annual examination of this market – new tires, retreads, point of service, channel of distribution, market trends and insights. With the economic impact of 2020, aftermarket sales of components and tires are not following the normal yearly increases in sales. The DataMac® Tire Operator Report details the economic impact on the tire business and much, much more.
E-Commerce
E-Commerce…it is the hottest nine-letter word out there. In 2019, prior to the pandemic (do you remember those days?), we released our latest report on the
E-Commerce impact on the truck and trailer aftermarket sales. Little did we know, that
E-Commerce would drastically change, increasing through numerous channels in our industry due to the pandemic. What does this market look like today at the height of the pandemic? Will fleets continue to purchase through E-Commerce channels as they currently are, or will this trend diminish in post-pandemic times? What new E-Commerce channels have emerged, and which channels are benefiting the most? While we had not planned on examining this market so soon after our 2019
E-Commerce Study, we have had interest from our client base. Is this something you and your company would find useful when developing your future distribution strategies? Please let us know.
