2026 Upgraded from “Very Challenging” to “Formidably Challenging”

For the past several months, we have concluded our outlook pieces with the advice that 2026 would be a “very challenging” year. That conclusion was, itself, an upgrade from what had been our advice that 2025 would be a “challenging” year.

Recent events, mostly related to the war with Iran, have led us to the conclusion that we need to give a more dire warning of what we think conditions in our industry are likely to be over the rest of 2026. Hence: “formidably challenging.”

The main challenge, already on the table as we entered 2026, was the slowing pace of activity in the trucking sector accompanied by a squeeze on profits. To that, we now add both a spike in fuel prices of still undetermined size and duration and the supply chain disruption associated with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that will affect not only the movement of crude oil but also a host of other intermediate goods, such as helium and fertilizer, which go into creating manufactured and agricultural goods worldwide.

You will note we said: “mostly related to the war with Iran,” because we already had a long list of tests on the table. Principal among those were the stagnant conditions in the residential and commercial construction areas, both of which are trucking intensive. Also on the list was the prospect of little relief in the cost of capital with interest rates likely to be little changed over the balance of the year. Lastly, the steady rise in non-fuel-related operating costs, chiefly insurance costs and new equipment prices, was eroding already thin profit margins.

While it is possible the war with Iran could end at any moment, the damage already done by both sides will have lasting effects. Repairs on some of the processing and manufacturing facilities are estimated to take years, with the attendant loss of supply and upward pressure on prices. We should also recall that it took the better part of a year for the global supply chain to come back into balance following the disruptions caused by the COVID event in 2020. The inflation pulse generated by that event took almost three years to play out.

Gird your loins.

HDAD Fleet Mid-Year Check-in

Hoping that you can join us as we check in with the fleets who joined us on stage at HDAD 2026. We will dive into the same topics that we covered in January and then explore the current business environment and the challenges that fleets are currently confronting.

What has changed since January?
How is the current business climate?
What are your new equipment purchase plans for the balance of the year?
How can suppliers help with your current business challenges?

Keep an eye out for your invitation!

2026 Aftermarket Parts Branding Study

NOW IS THE TIME TO GET IN THIS STUDY! WE ARE FINALIZING OUR SURVEYS AND TO ENSURE THAT YOUR BRAND IS INCLUDED, WE NEED YOUR COMMITMENT ASAP.

Over the past several years, MacKay & Company has analyzed brand dynamics across the commercial vehicle aftermarket, examining perspectives from both fleet operators and the parts and service channel—including dealers, distributors, and independent repair facilities.

Today’s fleet owners face a growing range of brand choices when replacing parts. MacKay & Company research shows rising awareness and adoption of “value line,” or second-tier, brands, with usage steadily increasing. At the same time, parts sellers report that non-OEM brands account for roughly one-third of total parts sales, though share varies by component category.

To better understand these trends, MacKay & Company launched its first multi-client Aftermarket Parts Brand Study in 2021. The benchmark study captured insights from more than 600 end users and 170 dealers and distributors, evaluating nearly 40 aftermarket brands and more than 50 Tier 1 brands.

As replacement-part options expand beyond traditional OEM dealer networks to include independent distributors, component manufacturers, and a broad range of aftermarket channels, brand positioning and market perception are becoming increasingly important.

MacKay & Company is now finalizing the surveys for the 2026 Aftermarket Parts Brand Study. Reach out today to receive the study prospectus outlining the scope and deliverables (mackay@mackayco.com). Your immediate participation is needed to ensure brand inclusion in the survey.

New Resource Board Member

MacKay & Company is pleased to welcome our newest Resource Board Member! Marcus brings a wealth of experience and market knowledge in our industry with a strong background in the engine market as well as the aftermarket.

As Marcus’ bio highlights, he is a seasoned business leader with more than 30 years of experience in prime product engine sales, aftermarket parts sales, product management, and commercial growth in Remanufacturing, On-Highway Truck Engine, and Power & Energy global markets with Caterpillar inc. Throughout his career, Marcus has built and led global sales organizations, negotiated complex deals, and strengthened strategic alliances. He leads with relationship building, has strong organization skills, and commitment.

Welcome to the team, Marcus!

DataMac Truck Mexico

In 2023, MacKay & Company completed its ninth comprehensive aftermarket study of the medium and heavy duty truck, trailer and transit bus/motor coach parts and service business in Mexico since initiated in 1992. As in past years, survey data was gathered by way of face-to-face interviews with vehicle maintenance personnel in truck and bus/coach fleets operating in Mexico and was conducted by MacKay’s research partner. This research methodology has been utilized to gather data for the previous seven DataMac® Mexico reports.

MacKay & Company is anticipating releasing the DataMac Truck & Bus Mexico: 10th Edition in the fourth quarter of 2026. Our report will cover retail Medium and Heavy Duty retail sales, vehicle universe information, replacement demand, aftermarket by product category and more! Product categories include Power Generation, Power Transmission, Undercarriage, Electrical, Cab & Chassis and Other.

Subscribers will receive the electronic report, a final presentation of the findings, and access to our DMAC online application.

If you wish to receive a detailed prospectus on DataMac Truck & Bus Mexico: 10th Edition, please contact John Blodgett, directly.

DataMac Lube CE

For 2025, a large update was incorporated to the population numbers used to calculate lubricant demand in the DataMac® Lube system. New types of machinery were included, and current machinery totals were re-distributed to better reflect the VIO (vehicles in operation) between 2018-2025.

While on-highway vehicles are typically serviced based on mileage intervals, construction equipment is measured by service cycles or hours in operation. Within the construction equipment segment, three primary vocations highlight the survey response segments used in DataMac® Lube — construction/mining/refuse, lease/rental and other.

All 6 primary lubricant categories saw increases in 2025, 1.6% in total compared to an increase in 2024 of 5.1%. This is attributed to the maturity of the population using DEF. Our Study highlights each lubricant/fluid by brnad used as well as brand preferred.

Additionally, in the next couple of weeks, we are releasing an updated interface that will allow users to conduct more analyses and evaluate the market through a refreshed dashboard (even an API tool!). We re happy to walk you through the updated sire and share with you the new features.

If you are interested in more details about the market and would like subscription information, please contact
John Blodgett or Brian VanCamp, directly. You can also give us a call at (630) 916-6110.

MacKay & Company is looking to hire…

We are looking to add a few experienced professionals who bring knowledge and a passion for the markets we serve (truck/trailer, construction and agriculture equipment). Ideal candidates will have proven expertise with a commitment for delivering meaningful results. Send your resume to mackay@mackayco.com.