TEA | Q2 2026 Released
Total Truckable Economic Activity (TEA) rose by $315.7 billion in the second quarter of 2026 with all five components posting gains at the same time for the first time in more than two years.
The increases made in the second quarter of 2026 now put Total TEA 4% higher than it was a year ago. The progress made in the second quarter was centered in continued gains in Truckable Investment (which is how you say CapEx spending in “econospeak”) and the return to more normal conditions in Truckable Exports and Imports.
For the past two quarters, Fixed Investment has made the largest contributions to Truckable Investment, which tells us that CapEx spending continues to dominate activity in this part of the trucking economy. Because inventory moves were much higher in the second quarter than in the first, Truckable Investment went from -0.1% in the first quarter to 6.0% in the second quarter. Meanwhile, on the strength of the gains made by Information Processing Equipment and Software (this is where the AI and data center spending gets picked up), Truckable Fixed Investment went from a gain of 3.9% in the first quarter to a gain of 5.2% in the second quarter.
Turning to the export component of TEA, we find an acceleration in growth in the second quarter largely the result of the explosive increase in petroleum and products exports. The jump in global oil and gas prices has produced a windfall for our oil and gas industry. We are selling more of everything at higher prices. These conditions are expected to prevail for as long as the global oil market is under duress. And, depending on which part of the Middle East production and refining facilities are damaged, we could see foreign demand for our oil and gas remain high even after hostilities are ended. The other issue showing signs of stress is the effects of transit disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and now in the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal.
The acceleration of growth in Truckable Imports had less to do with improving conditions than the amelioration of bad conditions. Most of the large negative numbers you see in the first quarter of the year were the result of the 2026 activity being compared to the surge-driven spike of activity in the first quarter of 2025 as importers sought to get as much product into the country ahead of the announcement of global tariffs on April 1, 2025. This major anomaly is now behind us. The degree of disruption in the shipping channels will impact Imports as well.
Looking ahead, Total TEA is expected to experience modest and uneven growth with downside risks continuing to dominate. AI Investment will provide upward momentum to Investment, but it is unknown whether or not this will be enough to continue to offset equipment and construction lackluster spending. Imports and Exports will be impacted by ocean transportation issues, limiting growth and weak foreign demand for our goods.
For subscription information regarding our quarterly Truckable Economic Activity report, please contact John Blodgett.
Scholarship Winners
For 10 years, MacKay & Company has offered two scholarships to students who are interested in pursuing a career in the aftermarket, the commercial vehicle industry or a related field. This year’s winners are both business majors at Northwood University. Our featured scholarship winner this month is Trey Williams. Jack DeWildt was featured in our August 2026 newsletter.
“My name is Trey Williams, and I am a student at Northwood University studying Automotive Marketing.
I am a sophomore this fall and play for the baseball team as well. Along with this, I am participating on a team for the Northwood University Auto Show September 18-20th. I recently got a job on campus as a residential advisor and hope to make a large and positive impact for new and returning students on campus.
Thank you again for awarding me this scholarship as it will hugely help me continue to attend school and work towards my degree at Northwood University.”
We encourage other companies to support students pursuing their degrees and working to strengthen the future of the industries we serve. For information regarding scholarship opportunities or to make a donation, please visit the University of the Aftermarket foundation at www.uofa-foundation.org.
U.S. DataMac Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks and Trailers Operator Report
Just Released!
MacKay & Company released its 2026 U.S. DataMac Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks and Trailers Operator Report Report on September 30th.
In 2026, total aftermarket demand is forecast to total $57.8 billion, increasing 4.9% year-over-year. Over the next five years, aftermarket demand is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.6% through 2031. Utilization, pricing and mileage play key roles in the aftermarket model and outlook. Utilization trends highlight steady performance with 2026 full year utilization projected to come in at 86.0%, back to levels seen in 2023. 2026 is projected to see a price increase of 2.0%. Annual mileages have stabilized following the decline induced by the pandemic and are expected to remain steady over the coming years.
While economic conditions remain uncertain, the aftermarket continues to demonstrate growth. Stable utilization rates, a gradually aging vehicle population and ongoing replacement demand provide a solid foundation for growth, with Class 8 vehicles driving both equipment activity and aftermarket parts demand.
Continuing our efforts to report on current business factors faced by fleets, we asked a number of survey questions probing into a variety of topics. Fleets report modest improvement in business conditions during the first half of 2026 compared to the same time period in 2025. When asked about their primary concerns, fuel costs ranks highest followed by overall operating costs and labor/driver shortages. This marks a shift from last year when operating costs and the economy topped the list of concerns.
In this year’s report, we also dive into a number of additional topics:
The impact of rising fuel costs on parts purchasing decisions,
The extent to which fleets are passing fuel charges on to customers,
Fleets’ use of AI in their service operations,
Strategies to address driver/technician shortages and,
Factors influencing the choice between new parts and reman parts.
The range of additional business questions reflects the challenges fleets are facing in today’s environment.
Want more information on the U.S. Report? Contact John Blodgett.
NEW Market Study
Shop Tool & Equipment Study
For decades, MacKay & Company has provided detailed analyses of Class 6-8 trucks, school buses and trailers populations operating by vocation in the United States and the associated spending on parts, tires, lubricants and service labor hours to support these vehicles.
With this extensive background in mind, it is now time to address how much is spent annually in detail on the tools and equipment purchased by the fleets operating their own shops and the shops that repair fleet vehicles (truck dealers, independent service garages, engine distributors, truck stops, etc.) and technicians who purchase their own.
The goal of this research study will be to profile the current market size of shop equipment and tools in detail by examining the following objectives:
How much is the overall annual spend on these items? How does this vary by shop/fleet?
Point of purchase of tools and equipment?
Brand preference by major type of tool and equipment
Brand decision factors
As currently outlined, our 2026 Study will cover the following shop tool and equipment:
Diagnotic Tools (code readers, scan tools, related software, tables, etc.)
Power Tools (pneumatic and cordless power)
Shop Equipment (lifts, battery chargers, parts washers, wheel balancers, alignment systems, etc.)
Tool Storage (tool boxes, organizers, etc.)
Specialty and Hand Tools (mechanical and specialty hand tools)
Would you like more information in this newly proposed Study? If you commit to participate early in the process, we can incorporate the tools and equipment of interest to you into the survey.
To learn more about this Study, reach out to John Blodgett.
E-Commerce Parts Purchasing Study
2027 marks MacKay & Company’s 5th extensive examination of the e-commerce market for replacement parts on medium and heavy duty trucks, school buses and trailers.
The last four studies explored a variety of issues relating to e-commerce and the aftermarket for medium and heavy duty vehicles in the U.S. with the primary goal of measuring the growth and the penetration of fleets’ e-commerce parts purchasing. In our initial survey to fleets in 2017, online orders equaled 10% of all medium and heavy duty parts purchases.
By 2019, online parts purchasing grew to 12%. Two years later, while missing forecasts but growing nonetheless, parts orders through online resources posted a slight increase at 13% in 2021. In 2024, fleets continue to order more parts online with the overall average climbing to 14%, slightly below forecast. Have fleets continued this trend, hitting the forecast of 17% of parts purchased through online channels?
In 2027, we are slated to take another comprehensive look at this growing purchase channel. We will focus on study participant e-commerce interests, adding topics of interest to address our client’s e-commerce research needs. We will also explore questions asked in previous years to note trend changes and current happenings.
Our 2027 Study, as we have in previous years, will survey both fleets and distribution channels to capture the entire
e-commerce environment — from the user standpoint as well as those who sell the parts.
To learn more about our 2027 E-Commerce Study, please contact John Blodgett or Travis Kokenes.
Aftermarket Index | North America and Europe
MacKay & Company is looking to increase its Aftermarket Index client portfolio for North America and Europe.
The Aftermarket Index provides participants with monthly insight on activity in the aftermarket for the United States, Canada and Mexico for both original equipment and independent channels. As a participant, sales data is submitted and then summarized data is then returned to all participants. All individual participants’ sales data are kept confidential. With 20 participating companies, the Index provides a comprehensive view of aftermarket sales activity and trends.
Beginning in 2019, the European Aftermarket Index launched and provides monthly summarized aftermarket sales by OES and Independent Aftermarket channels for Europe, Russia and MENA.
The Aftermarket Index includes:
Aftermarket Performance: monthly, quarterly and YTD
Historical Trends and Seasonality – graphs showing 3-month and 12-month moving averages and seasonality
Average Sales per day analysis
You can view a Sample Aftermarket Index Report here.
If you are interested in obtaining a subscription to provide data and/or receive our monthly Aftermarket Index report, please contact John Blodgett or David Kalvelage for more information.
2026 Commercial Vehicle Market Overview Roadshow
MacKay has reached out to its DataMac clients to coordinate a suitable date and time for the Roadshow presentation. If you have not yet scheduled your online or onsite Roadshow, now is your opportunity!
Please reach out to Marlein Gomez with your preferred date and time (include Time Zone).
We value the opportunity to connect with our DataMac clients during this annual presentation. These sessions also give clients a chance to explore the aftermarket in greater depth, ask questions specific to their business and strategic plans, and discuss additional areas of interest.
Our Market Overview includes insights on the economy, utilization trends, the Aftermarket Index, DataPulse Plus (our monthly indicator based on dealer, distributor, and fleet activity), and, of course, the aftermarket itself.
HDAD Aftermarket Dialogue 2027
January 18, 2027
Gaylord Texan | Grapevine, TX
Brought to you by MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers and MacKay & Company, the Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue (HDAD) is a full-day executive conference bringing together senior leaders from across the heavy-duty aftermarket to explore the trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the industry.
Through timely market insights, candid conversations and expert perspectives, HDAD examines the business issues affecting suppliers, distributors, fleets, OEMs and the broader commercial vehicle ecosystem.
Held at the Gaylord Texan Resort & Convention Center immediately before HDAW, HDAD gives attendees an opportunity to begin the week, and the year, with fresh insights and perspectives they can carry directly into their conversations, meetings and decision-making throughout HDAW.
To register for this event, please visit MEMA Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue 2027.
Pricing for MacKay clients:
Early Bird: $899 (Now – December 18, 2026)
Regular: $999 (December 19, 2026 – January 18, 2027)
To receive the MacKay & Company client discount code, please contact Marlein Gomez at marlein.gomez@mackayco.com.